When agents anticipate that a future shock could start a crisis, they may take preemptive actions that contribute to the crisis. This can create panic — a crisis even when the fundamental does not warrant it. We construct an optimal dynamic information disclosure policy called “timely...

Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paperstudies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to thecase of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currencycrisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Severalprincipal indicators of the...

We propose a wavelet-based approach for construction of a financial cycle proxy. Specifically, we decompose three key macro-financial variables – private credit, house prices, and stock prices – on a frequency-scale basis using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The resulting...

This paper proposes a macro-prudential financial soundness analysis that can be used by most developing and transformation countries with or without crisis experience as well as by developed countries with limited data. The objective is to detect economic and financial sector vulnerability,...

We test the performance of a host of real and financial variables as early warning indicators for costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles, using data for 18 OECD countries between 1970 and 2007. A signalling approach is used to predict asset price booms that have relatively serious real...

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...

In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The...

The 1997 Asian financial crisis has revealed the limitations of the current state of monetary and financial monitoring system in most Asian countries in comprehensively addressing financial and monetary problems and issues. This paper attempts to propose a macroprudential indicators (MPI)...