Reducing coup risk is imperative and expensive for postconflict leaders. A theoretical framework is therefore needed to … to reduce coup risk by using nonstrategic aid for development. A nested research design with data on postconflict coups … robustness checks, indicating that development from aid reduces coup risk for postconflict leaders with low windfall. …

Although coup risk plays an important role in theories of war, revolution, and democratization, scholars have not … developed a rigorous conceptualization and valid measure of the concept. We develop a structural understanding of coup risk as … previous coupincidence models and highlight deficiencies of the common approach to measuring coup risk. The structural …