In this paper we augment the Bayesian unobserved components model of the EU Commission to estimate the cyclical component of total factor productivity (TFP gap) with a factor structure to include a wide array of business cycle indicators. We demonstrate that this model extension considerably...

A rise in the aggregate markup can be decomposed into an effect coming from changes in firm-level markups and an effect coming from reallocation of economic activity toward high-markup firms. I show that such a decomposition is heavily influenced by measurement error of firm-level markups. When...

We propose a proxy for global equity mispricing (mispricing $R^2$) based on an instrumented principal component analysis of the return variation of 198 mispricing anomalies. We find that mispricing $R^2$ is higher for countries with lower market development, lower accounting quality, and higher...

The time proximity of high-frequency trades can contain a salient signal. In this paper, we propose a method to classify every trade, based on its proximity with other trades in the market within a short period of time, into five types. By means of a suitably defined normalized order imbalance...

The risk premiums on real estate investment trusts (REITs) have exceeded and remained higher than those of stocks since the financial crisis of 2007--2008. In this paper, we investigate the reason why. Using the Campbell-Shiller beta decomposition, we find that REIT returns are more sensitive to...

The method of predicting events based on correlation mapping and Fourier decomposition of relevant time series, which is presented in this paper, is intended for the predictive calculation of signs that an event will occur. As input data for calculating the forecast, in addition to the series...

We develop a distribution regression model under endogenous sample selection. This model is a semi-parametric generalization of the Heckman selection model. It accommodates much richer effects of the covariates on outcome distribution and patterns of heterogeneity in the selection process, and...