Félix, Luiz; Kräussl, Roman; Stork, Philip - 2018
This paper investigates how biases in macroeconomic forecasts are associated with economic surprises and market … is a strong predictor of economic surprises, suggesting that forecasters behave strategically (rational bias) and possess … conditions, both economic surprises and the returns of assets that are sensitive to macroeconomic conditions are predictable. Our …