We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less...

This paper provides an overview of the uncovered interest parity assumption. It traces the history of the interest parity concept, summarizes evidence on the empirical validity of uncovered interest parity, and discusses different interpretations of the evidence and the implications for...

This paper shows that recent manifestations of sudden stops (SSs) in international capital flows have striking parallels in the early financial globalization era preceding World War I. All main capital-importing countries then faced episodic capital flow reversals averaging some 5 percent of GDP...

This paper proposes a template for assessing whether or not a country's economic and financial characteristics make it an appropriate candidate for a pegged exchange rate regime. The template employs quantifiable measures of attributes-trade orientation, financial integration, economic...

The economic recovery since 2004 has been accompanied by a steady rise in inflation. Several factors have contributed, including an expansionary monetary stance (with credit to the private sector growing by some 45 percent). Although pleased with the recent improvement of the economy, the...

Tunisia showed excellent economic performance. Executive Directors commended the strong economic performance and resilience to adverse shocks, subdued inflation, strengthened reserves, and increasing capital inflows, which underscored the benefits of sustained sound macroeconomic policies and...

The number of studies attempting to estimate the "equilibrium" real value of China's currency has proliferated in recent years as the country's presence in world markets has grown. These studies have sought to establish whether or not a significant part of China's competitive prowess can be...

This Selected Issues paper reviews how Australia’s economy has adapted to a flexible Australian Dollar. The paper provides a background on the float and the initial policy challenges. It discusses the main elements of the Future Fund proposal, and estimates how much Australia and other...

This paper on recent developments and regional policy issues in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) discusses the recent development and trends in economic integration. Trade restrictions and an uneven application of CEMAC rules constrain external and intraregional trade....

This Selected Issues paper on the Arab Republic of Egypt examines the dynamic relationship between the nominal exchange rate and prices during Egypt’s exit from a managed exchange rate regime. The exit from the peg went through several phases, including a series of step devaluations...