This paper focuses on common policies for member countries of Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). It highlights that the fiscal stance should be more cautious in some countries where policy buffers are insufficient to withstand shocks. The recent easing of monetary policy...

The multipliers of taxes, and government consumption and investment expenditure for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) are estimated using vector autoregression models with panel data. The impact and long-run multipliers are below unity, suggesting that a great extent of the intended...

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidations associated with public debt reduction on medium-term output growth during periods of private debt deleveraging. The analysis covers 107 countries and 79 episodes of public debt reduction driven by discretionary fiscal adjustments during...

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro...

Focusing on Low-Income Countries, we investigate the behavior of fiscal variables during and after elections. The results indicate that during election years, government consumption significantly increases and leads to higher fiscal deficits. During the two years following elections, the fiscal...

We draw on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal variables for a large panel of countries—to our knowledge, the most comprehensive database currently available—to gauge the degree of fiscal prudence or profligacy for each country over the past several decades....

Thailand is recovering from a challenging year marked by natural disasters of historic magnitude. This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that positive signs of a recovery are already under way with sharp improvements seen in high frequency indicators since December 2011. Executive...

We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the...

This Selected Issues Paper focuses on the Heritage and Stabilization Fund (HSF) and development in the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago. The HSF, established in 2007, is an important national asset, which has broad-based political and social support. The HSF has developed a strong record...

Tanzania has weathered the adverse shocks of recent years relatively well. Revenue collection for 2010–11 has fallen short of targets, constraining public spending and contributing to the emergence of arrears. Monetary policy has become less accommodative. The near-term economic outlook...