Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze if revisions to these projections (i.e., forward guidance) can be...

Wirtschaftsprognosen sollen die Unsicherheit bezüglich der zukünftigen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung mindern und Planungsprozesse von Regierungen und Unternehmen unterstützen. Empirische Studien bescheinigen ihnen jedoch in aller Regel ein unbefriedigendes Qualitätsniveau. Auf der Suche nach...

Macroeconomic forecasters are often criticized for a lack of transparency when presenting their forecasts. To deter such criticism, the transparency of the forecasting process should be enhanced by tracing and explaining the effects of data revisions and expert judgment updates on variations in...

We offer the first examination of whether the gold forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future gold spot rate. We find strong evidence that it is not, particularly at longer maturities. Building on Aggarwal and Zong's (2008) approach to allow for investor risk aversion, we then examine...