Caldara, Dario; Iacoviello, Matteo - 2018
We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical … tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after … geopolitical risk leads to a decline in real activity, lower stock returns, and movements in capital flows away from emerging …