ELLIOTT, ROBERT J.; HAN, BING - In: International Journal of Theoretical and Applied … 09 (2006) 07, pp. 1009-1020
A Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) is applied to study the forward premium puzzle. The weekly quotient of the interest rate differential divided by the log exchange rate change is modeled as a Hidden Markov process. Compared with existing standard approaches, the Hidden Markov approach allows a...