Search Results - subject:"judgemental adjustment"

When and how to adjust statistical forecasts in supply chains? : insight from causal machine learning

Wibowo, Budhi - In: Journal of business analytics 7 (2024) 1, pp. 25-41

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014446576

Does experts' adjustment to model-based forecasts contribute to forecast quality?

Franses, Philip Hans; Legerstee, Legerstee, R. - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2007

We perform a large-scale empirical analysis of the question whether model-based forecasts can be improved by adding expert knowledge. We consider a huge database of a pharmaceutical company where the head office uses a statistical model to generate monthly sales forecasts at various horizons for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837997

What drives the relevance and quality of experts' adjustment to model-based forecasts?

Franses, Philip Hans; Legerstee, Legerstee, R. - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2007

Experts frequently adjust statistical model-based forecasts. Sometimes this leads to higher forecast accuracy, but expert forecasts can also be dramatically worse. We explore the potential drivers of the relevance and quality of experts' added knowledge. For that purpose, we examine a very large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731638

What drives the relevance and quality of experts' adjustment to model-based forecasts?

Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Legerstee, R. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972231

Does experts' adjustment to model-based forecasts contribute to forecast quality?

Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Legerstee, R. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972239

Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts

Franses, Philip Hans - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2006

In business and in macroeconomics it is common practice to use econo- metric models to generate forecasts. These models can take any degree of sophistication. Sometimes it is felt by an expert that the model-based fore- cast needs adjustment. This paper makes a plea for a formal approach to such...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731718

Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts

Franses, Ph.H.B.F. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2006

Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts⁄ Philip Hans Fransesy Econometric Institute, Erasmus … adjustments, even in case large adjustments are felt necessary. Key words: Forecasting, Judgemental adjustment JEL code: C53 2 1 … representation of the judgemental adjustment process is important. The formal model is empirically illustrated for forecasting US …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004972257