Search Results - subject:"professional forecasters"

Can macroeconomists forecast risk? Event-based evidence from the euro area SPF

Kenny, Geoff; Kostka, Thomas; Masera, Federico - European Central Bank - 2013

We propose methods to evaluate the risk assessments collected as part of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686864

Markiewicz, Agnieszka; Pick, Andreas - Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, University … - 2013

expectations of professional forecasters for a range of variables. These results suggest that, instead of relying only on the the …This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional … forecasters. For a range of macroeconomic and financial variables, we compare constant and decreasing gain learning models to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010690321

Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters

Koop, Gary; Onorante, Luca - 2012

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605467

How informative are the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists?

Kenny, Geoff; Kostka, Thomas; Masera, Federico - 2012

from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the evaluation of the entire …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605491

A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts

Sinclair, Tara M.; Stekler, H. O.; Carnow, Warren - In: Economics Bulletin 32 (2012) 3, pp. 2332-2342

these forecasts. Our approach uses VARs and distance measures. It is applied to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011278679

Fiscal Foresight, Forecast Revisions and the Effects of Government Spending in the Open Economy

Gambetti, Luca - Departament d'Economia i Història Econòmica, … - 2012

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010836478

Good Luck or Good Policy? An Expectational Theory of Macro-Volatility Switches.

Gaballo, G. - Banque de France - 2012

In an otherwise unique-equilibrium model, agents are segmented into a few informational islands according to the signal they receive about others' expectations. Even if agents perfectly observe fundamentals, rational-exuberance equilibria (REX) can arise as they put weight on expectational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010816012

Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters

Koop, Gary; Onorante, Luca - European Central Bank - 2012

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686766

How informative are the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists?

Kenny, Geoff; Kostka, Thomas; Masera, Federico - European Central Bank - 2012

from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the evaluation of the entire …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686875

Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts

Jansen, Jos; Jin, Xiaowen; Winter, Jasper de - de Nederlandsche Bank - 2012

We conduct a systematic comparison of the short-term forecasting abilities of eleven statistical models and professional analysts in a pseudo-real time setting, using a large set of monthly indicators. Our analysis covers the euro area and its five largest countries over the years 1996-2011. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010601717