Whether households smooth' consumption in response to predictable changes in income is an open and contentious question. This paper examines the consumption reaction to predictable increases in discretionary income following the final payment of a vehicle loan. Using data from the Consumer...

This paper revisits monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model where agents use an adaptive learning strategy named recursive least square learning in order to form their expectations. Due to the households' finite heterogeneity triggered by idiosyncratic unemployment risk, the...

We examine the relationship between income growth and saving using both cross-country and household data. At the aggregate level, we find that growth Granger causes saving, but that saving does not Granger cause growth. Using household data, we find that households with predictably higher income...

Using information in returns we identify the stochastic process of consumption – the crucial ingredient of most macro-finance models. We find that aggregate consumption reacts over multiple quarters to innovations spanned by financial markets, and this persistent component accounts for 26% of...

We estimate the fraction of the wealth of a sample of PSID respondents that is held because some households face greater income uncertainty than others. We first derive an equation characterizing the theoretical relationship between wealth and uncertainty in a buffer-stock model of saving. Next,...

We document systematic and significant time variation in US lifecycle nondurable consumption profiles. Consumption profiles have consistently become flatter: intergenerational differences in consumption across age groups have decreased over time. Pooling data across different periods to identify...

This paper uses the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with greater income uncertainty. However, the apparent pattern of precautionary saving is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life...

Macroeconomic research on consumption has been influenced profoundly by rational expectations. First, rational expectations together with the hypothesis of constant expected real interest rates implies that consumption should evolve as a random walk. Much of the research of the past decade has...

In this paper we argue that once one departs from the simple classroom example, or `stripped down life-cycle model,' the empirical model for consumption growth can be made flexible enough to fit the main features of the data. More specifically, we show that allowing demographics to affect...

In recent years the role of intergenerational transfers in the process of wealth accumulation has been the subject of substantial empirical and theoretical analysis. The key question stimulating this research is what is the main explanation for savings? Is it primarily accumulation for...