This paper aims to explore the impact of rising uncertainty on prices using micro-data on prices and multi-sector new Keynesian models. We identify diverse price responses to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty: goods with relatively flexible prices experience a decline due to lower demand...

Managing inflation is vital for a stable economy, but forecasting remains challenging. ML methods, like neural networks, have shown promise in forecasting inflation and other macroeconomic variables. In this paper, I propose DPCNet, a deep multi-task learning model, to jointly forecast inflation...

Inflation and unemployment are two important macroeconomic variables that affect our daily lives. This literature review will present the correlation of unemployment and rising inflation and their effects on people’s well-being as well. A historical 10-year data on inflation and unemployment...

We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...

We evaluate two hypotheses, the ‘Friedman-Ball Hypothesis’ and the ‘Cukierman-Meltzer Hypothesis,’ in the context of Bangladesh. The first posits that an increase in inflation leads to greater inflation uncertainty, while the second asserts that inflation uncertainty causes an increase...

Uncertainty is a challenge for monetary policy. This paper introduces model uncertainty into a behavioral New Keynesian DSGE framework to derive robust optimal monetary policies. We consider two potential forms of agents’ heterogeneity, which refer to two mechanisms of expectation formation...

Across the world, many countries are currently witnessing a historic wave of inflation while only a very few have partially recovered from it. This may be attributed to the subsequent disruptions in production and supply chain brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic. Inflation has brought about a...