Kovacs, Kevin; Boulier, Bryan; Stekler, Herman - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 237 (2017) 4, pp. 329-341
Abstract Historically, forecasters have failed to predict cyclical turning points and the forecasting record in this regard has not improved. This suggests that we should focus on what should be an easier task, recognizing recessions as they occur. We present a new approach that will enable us...