Employing a Bayesian approach, we investigate the impact of international business cycles on the UK economy in the context of a smooth transition VAR. We find that British business cycle is asymmetrically influenced by the US, France and Germany. Overall, positive and negative shocks generating...

The validation of causal relationship between two groups of multivariate time series data often requires the precedence knowledge of all variables. However, in practice one finds that some variables may be negligible in describing the underlying causal structure. In this article we provide an...