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Cadasters, Asset Tangibility, and Growth

Sever, Can - 2026

Cadasters—records of land and property ownership—constitute an important pillar of a country’s institutional landscape by enabling the assignment of property rights. This paper examines the impact of cadasters on long-term economic growth by identifying a specific channel in this link:...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612579

How Effectively Can Current LLMs Analyze Macrofinancial Issues?

Ganum, Paola - 2026

This paper empirically evaluates the ability of current Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze macrofinancial coverage in IMF Article IV staff reports, using human economists' assessments as a benchmark. We test several GPT models on reports from 2016-2024, assessing their performance on both...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612584

A Novel Quarterly Macroeconomic Forecasting Framework : Illustration on the Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Hlédik, Tibor - 2026

This paper describes the Quarterly Macro Forecasting Framework (QMFF), which is a novel approach to macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. At the core of this framework is a Quarterly Projection Model, with main behavioral equations quantified as deviations of real variables from their...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612585

Tilting the Balance Towards Equity : Capital Controls and the Structure of External Liabilities

Krahnke, Tobias - 2026

Capital flow restrictions have long been debated as a tool to manage external financial vulnerabilities, as volatile international capital flows and high external debt can contribute to financial crises. However, empirical evidence on whether capital flow management measures (CFMs) can shift the...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612586

Risk Propagation in the European Banking System : Amplification Effect from NBFIs and Market Risks

Valderrama, Laura - 2026

This paper applies network analysis to examine the impact of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) and financial market stress on contagion risk within the interbank network. Using network-based simulations on euro area banks’ supervisory data, we find that banks’ strong capital and...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612591

Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya

Danov, Nikolay - 2026

This paper develops a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya. Nowcasting combines official monthly indicators with digital transaction data. Exploiting strong comovement of macroeconomic time series, a few latent factors summarize aggregate dynamics and...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612596

Who Pays When Tax Administration Improves? Revenue, Compliance, and Behavioral Responses to Georgia’s Large Taxpayer Office

Atsebi, Jean-Marc - 2026

In 2021, the Republic of Georgia established a Large Taxpayer Office (LTO) to strengthen tax administration and improve compliance among firms that contribute a disproportionate share of revenue. This paper draws on that quasi-experiment to estimate the causal impact of intensive oversight, with...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612597

Intermediation, Interrupted? Bank-Level Analysis of Interest Spreads in Montenegro

Cevik, Serhan - 2026

Financial intermediation in Montenegro has been on a declining trend since independence, with domestic credit to the private sector decreasing from a peak of 86.5 percent of GDP in 2008 to 46.4 percent in 2024. Net interest margin (NIM)—a common indicator of intermediation costs—has remained...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612601

Sowing Seeds of Mobility : The Uneven Impact of Land Reform

Chen, Ting - 2026

We study the uneven impacts of reducing mobility barriers arising from land market frictions by leveraging two major land reforms that strengthened land rental rights in China. We construct a novel county-level reform index by tracing the reforms’ spatial and temporal rollout. Combining this...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612604

Population Aging and Pension Reforms in China

Bonthuis, Boele - 2026

China is experiencing rapid population aging and a declining workforce, posing significant economic and fiscal challenges, especially to the pension system. This paper examines the evolution of China’s pension system, assesses its gaps relative to international peers, and evaluates the...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612607