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Coal, weather shocks, and electricity reliability : evidence from South Africa

Imelda; Srinivasan, Suchita - 2026

Can weather shocks undermine energy security in coal-dependent economies? Using matched high-resolution rainfall data at South Africa's coal power plants and their contracted supplier mines-where coal accounts for about 80% of electricity generation-we estimate how upstream rainfall shocks...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015655342

Economic implications of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for South Africa and Mozambique

Chepeliev, Maksym; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique - 2026

This paper evaluates the economic impacts of the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom (UK) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Mozambique and South Africa-two countries with high exposure due to carbon-intensive exports. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Circular Economy...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015655343

From free markets to industrial nationalism : what the West's green industrial policies mean for emerging economies

Narassimhan, Easwaran J.; Gallagher, Kelly Sims - 2026

Following the proliferation of net-zero targets, and against a backdrop of fossil fuel supply volatility, major Western economies - the US and the EU - have embraced green industrial policies. This paper reviews the history of industrial policymaking and the factors that have led to the...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015655356

Shaping green industrial transformation in India : some lessons

Kumar, Nagesh; Tandon, Anjali; Verma, Swati - 2026

India's development strategy is currently focused on harnessing the potential of the manufacturing sector through a range of industrial policy interventions to create decent new job opportunities for its youthful population. However, for late-industrializers like India, 'industrialize first and...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015655357

Factor income taxation and the governance dividend

Masi, Tania; Savoia, Antonio; Sen, Kunal - 2026

An influential literature suggests that the rise of taxation should come with a 'governance dividend': the quality of government should improve, because the taxpaying citizenry will subject the ruler to increased scrutiny. While this fits the history of nowadays advanced economies, it is less...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612454

A market-based assessment of the outlook for inflation : expectations and monetary policy in South Africa

Christensen, Jens H. E.; Steenkamp, Daan - 2026

Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific liquidity risk premia, this paper provides estimates of bond investors' inflation expectations and associated inflation risk premia in South African sovereign bonds. The...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612457

A probabilistic measure of state fragility

Margalef, Joan - 2026

This paper develops a novel measure of state fragility: the probability of state failure. We define state failure as the inability to perform core functions and operationalize it through observable breakdowns- conflict, territorial control, institutional deficiency, and public service...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612459

Cash transfers and labour supply under structural unemployment

Köhler, Tim; Stanwix, Benjamin; Bhorat, Haroon - 2026

How effective are cash transfers at improving labour market outcomes in settings characterized by severe job scarcity and constraints to self-employment? This paper provides evidence of the labour market effects of South Africa's Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, a low-value, unconditional...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015612470

The geography of intergenerational mobility in South Africa

Razak, Aarifah - 2026

This paper examines the geography of intergenerational income mobility in South Africa across districts and metropolitan municipalities as well as historically disadvantaged former-homelands. South Africa's high inequality has a geographical dimension (spatial inequality), shaped by a long...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015614248

Monetary and fiscal implications of commodity price shocks for commodityexporting small open economies

Naraidoo, Ruthira - 2026

Commodity-exporting economies, such as South Africa, are susceptible to wide fluctuations in their business cycles, closely tied to commodity price fluctuations. In this research, we develop a prototype dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with specific features for emerging small...

Persistent link: https://econbiz.de/10015614249