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Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets : Empirical Indicators

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473427

Managing Macroeconomic Crises

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2004

This study reviews broadly the experience of the last decade on crisis prevention and management. It seeks to draw greater attention to policy decisions that are made during the phase when capital inflows come to a sudden stop. Procrastination---the period of financing a balance of payments...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467780

The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2001

This paper considers policies of the industrialized countries, as they pertain to crises in emerging markets. These fall into three areas: (1) their own macroeconomic policies, which determine the global financial environment; (2) their role in responding to crises when they occur, particularly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470082

The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency

Chinn, Menzie D. - 2008

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the … euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the … the de facto financial center of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464738

Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate : Evidence from Survey Data

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1987

Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476853

The Desirability of a Dollar Appreciation, Given a Contractionary U.S. Monetary Policy

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1983

Undesirable real effects have been attributed to floating exchange rates in general, and the 1980-83 appreciation of the dollar in particular.In the appreciating country, the U.S., export industries lose competitiveness and so output falls. In the other country, say Europe, the exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477992

New Estimation of China's Exchange Rate Regime

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2009

switched a substantial part of the dollar's weight onto the euro. The implication is that the appreciation of the RMB against … the dollar during this period was due to the appreciation of the euro against the dollar, not to any upward trend in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463947

Country Fund Discounts, Asymmetric Information and the Mexican Crisis of 1994 : Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the front-runners in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473124

Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2005

To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless whether the devaluation takes place in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467146

A Relationship Between Regression Tests and Volatility Tests of Market ncy

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1983

Volatility tests are an alternative to regression tests for evaluating the joint null hypothesis of market efficiency and risk neutrality. Acomparison of the power of the two kinds of tests depends on what the alternative hypothesis is taken to be. By considering tests based on conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477997