Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from a recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. This paper analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical...

In this study we develop an early warning system (EWS) to forecast currency crises in emerging countries in Asia and Latin America, using logit regression on monthly data from 1992 to 2011. We found that macroeconomic and institutional variables are valuable indicators for forecasting crises....

Periods of economic turmoil distort the ability of stock prices to reflect the available information. In the last three decades, emerging markets experienced numerous crises. The major three of them are the Asian Financial Crisis (1997-1998), Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009) and Global...

The statistical analysis of financial time series is a rich and diversified research field whose inherent complexity requires an interdisciplinary approach, gathering together several disciplines, such as statistics, economics, and computational sciences. This special issue of the Journal of...

The theoretical literature remains inconclusive on whether changes in bank exposure towards the domestic sovereign have an adverse effect on the sovereign risk position via a diabolic loop in the sovereign-bank nexus or reduce perceived default risk by acting as a disciplinary device for the...

We formulate a measure of information efficiency in a general, no-arbitrage semimartingale model of the price process. The market quality measure is applied to a high-frequency dataset from the interdealer FX market to identify changes in market efficiency after a decimalization of tick size.