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The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency

Chinn, Menzie David; Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2008

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the … euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the … the de facto financial center of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014221029

Dollar Rivals

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2023

Written for a PIIE conference on the 50th anniversary of floating exchange rates, this paper deals with possible alternatives to a unipolar dollar-based system. It considers (1) measures of international currency use; (2) potential challengers to the dollar; (3) network externalities; and (4) the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347796

The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies : Less Biased than in Major Currencies

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Poonawala, Jumana - 2009

Many studies have replicated the finding that the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future change in the spot exchange rate. Usually the forward discount actually points in the wrong direction. But, at least until recently, those studies applied only to advanced economies and major...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014203931

Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Saravelos, George - 2013

This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175004

The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade : Why are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2008

others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members … that were estimated in the euro's first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more … explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014212159