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Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets : Empirical Indicators

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473427

Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2010

This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462605

A Relationship Between Regression Tests and Volatility Tests of Market ncy

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1983

Volatility tests are an alternative to regression tests for evaluating the joint null hypothesis of market efficiency and risk neutrality. Acomparison of the power of the two kinds of tests depends on what the alternative hypothesis is taken to be. By considering tests based on conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477997

Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets : A Survey

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2010

Models of dynamic inconsistency in monetary policy and the need for central bank independence and commitment to nominal targets apply even more strongly to developing countries. But because most developing countries are price-takers on world markets, the small open economy model, with nontraded...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462531

The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2001

This paper considers policies of the industrialized countries, as they pertain to crises in emerging markets. These fall into three areas: (1) their own macroeconomic policies, which determine the global financial environment; (2) their role in responding to crises when they occur, particularly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470082

The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency

Chinn, Menzie D. - 2008

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the … euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the … the de facto financial center of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464738

The Desirability of a Dollar Appreciation, Given a Contractionary U.S. Monetary Policy

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1983

Undesirable real effects have been attributed to floating exchange rates in general, and the 1980-83 appreciation of the dollar in particular.In the appreciating country, the U.S., export industries lose competitiveness and so output falls. In the other country, say Europe, the exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477992

New Estimation of China's Exchange Rate Regime

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2009

switched a substantial part of the dollar's weight onto the euro. The implication is that the appreciation of the RMB against … the dollar during this period was due to the appreciation of the euro against the dollar, not to any upward trend in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463947

Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate : Evidence from Survey Data

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1987

Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476853

Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2005

To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless whether the devaluation takes place in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467146