We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying...

This research link market microstructure with efficiency. Liquidity and volatility are linked with time-varying informational efficiency of the Asian emerging economies. Three measures are used for each variable. Using SGMM, this study finds that both variables have significant role in driving...

Adverse selection induces economic limits to market substitution. If quality uncertainty persists in both internet and traditional marketplaces, a second-best equilibrium with parallel market segments may arise. Positive trade in parallel segments implies that the information cost advantage of...

We study optimal bailout policies in the presence of banking and sovereign crises. First, we use European data to document that asset guarantees are the most prevalent way in which sovereigns intervene during banking crises. Then, we build a model of sovereign borrowing with limited commitment,...

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the conventional tests of efficiency (unbiasedness) of the forward rate or of the survey forecasts do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey...

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the conventional tests of efficiency (unbiasedness) of the forward rate or of the survey forecasts do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey...