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Distorted Innovation : Does the Market Get the Direction of Technology Right?
Acemoglu, Daron - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
innovation can be systematically distorted. This paper builds a simple model of endogenous technology, which generalizes existing … comparative static results and characterizes potential distortions in the direction of innovation. I show that empirical findings …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226119
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Scenarios for the Transition to AGI
Korinek, Anton; Suh, Donghyun - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512109
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The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
Acemoglu, Daron - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
This paper evaluates claims about large macroeconomic implications of new advances in AI. It starts from a task-based model of AI's effects, working through automation and task complementarities. So long as AI's microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544765
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Robots and Workers : Evidence from the Netherlands
Acemoglu, Daron; Koster, Hans; Ozgen, Ceren - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We estimate the effects of robot adoption on firm-level and worker-level outcomes in the Netherlands using a large employer-employee panel dataset spanning 2009-2020. Our firm-level results confirm previous findings, with positive effects on value added and hours worked for robot-adopting firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247929
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Technology and Labor Displacement : Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data
Kogan, Leonid; Papanikolaou, Dimitris; Schmidt, Lawrence; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We develop measures of labor-saving and labor-augmenting technology exposure using textual analysis of patents and job tasks. Using US administrative data, we show that both measures negatively predict earnings growth of individual incumbent workers. While labor-saving technologies predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436977
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New Frontiers : The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018
Autor, David H.; Chin, Caroline; Salomons, Anna M.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We address three core questions about the hypothesized role of newly emerging job categories ('new work') in counterbalancing the erosive effect of task-displacing automation on labor demand: what is the substantive content of new work; where does it come from; and what effect does it have on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362043
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The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David J. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption at work and at home. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072907
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Old Moats for New Models : Openness, Control, and Competition in Generative AI
Azoulay, Pierre; Krieger, Joshua L.; Nagaraj, Abhishek - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Drawing insights from the field of innovation economics, we discuss the likely competitive environment shaping … control the knowledge generated by their innovations--and complementary assets--whether effective entry requires access to … stifling broad sectoral innovation. We conclude with speculations regarding how this oligopolistic future might be averted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544752
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Mapping the Knowledge Space : Exploiting Unassisted Machine Learning Tools
Teodoridis, Florenta; Lu, Jino; Furman, Jeffrey L. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Understanding factors affecting the direction of innovation is a central aim of research in the economics of innovation …. Progress on this topic has been inhibited by difficulties in measuring distance and movement in knowledge space. We describe a … methodology that infers the mapping of the knowledge landscape based on text documents. The approach is based on an unassisted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435165
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Do Technology Standards Induce Innovation in Environmental Technologies When Coordination is Important?
Gregoire-Zawilski, Myria; Popp, David - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
If further decarbonization of electricity systems is to continue, a next generation of innovation in transformative … determinants of innovation in this sector to glean insights on how government may support the development and deployment of these … technologies. We argue that policies that were successful at supporting the first wave of renewables innovation may not be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537766