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We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458098
in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because … these banks rely on wholesale dollar funding, while raising more of their euro funding through insured retail deposits, the … dollar funding, there were significant violations of euro-dollar CIP. Moreover, dollar lending by Eurozone banks fell …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460132
Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share four elements. First, governments provide guarantees to domestic and foreign bank creditors. Second, banks do not hedge their exchange rate risk. Third, there is a lending boom before the crises. Finally, when the currency/banking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471651
We take stock of the history of the European Monetary Union and pegged exchange-rate regimes in recent decades. The post-Bretton Woods greater financial integration and under-regulated financial intermediation have increased the cost of sustaining a currency area and other forms of fixed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456577
On 3 December EY hosted a SUERF conference on banking reform with Sir Howard Davies, the Chairman of RBS, and Dame Colette Bowe, the Chairman of the Banking Standards Board, as the two keynote speakers. Professor David Miles (Imperial College) gave the SUERF 2015 Annual Lecture on Capital and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557140
This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using credit default swaps (CDS) and bond premiums for the major eurozone countries. By emphasizing several econometric approaches (nonlinear regression, quantile regression and Bayesian quantile regression with heteroskedasticity) we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459921
This paper examines macroprudential policies in open emerging economies. It discusses how the recent financial crisis has provided a rationale for macroprudential policies to help manage the economy and the need for policymakers to monitor the financial cycle and systemic risks. It also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460878
, euro area and UK data points to a substantial deviation from that invariance prediction: expectations of interest rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479321
six Euro-area countries over the period 2004-2011. As a first step, the supposed non stationarity of the two series is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461071
The possibility that the euro area might break up was being raised even before the single currency existed. These … scenarios were then lent new life five or six years on, when appreciation of the euro and problems of slow growth in various … unlikely, I argue here, that one or more members of the euro area will leave in the next ten years; total disintegration of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465257