Stylized facts for South Asia show the dominance of supply shocks, amplified by macroeconomic policies and procyclical current accounts. Interest and exchange rate volatility rose initially on liberalization, but fell as markets deepened. A gradual middling through approach to openness and...

It is logical to argue that growth led by low-carbon goods and services (LCGS) is an imperative for the countries of Asia and the Pacific, and particularly for emerging Asian economies, which are heavily dependent on imported energy and resources. Acknowledging this fact, individual governments...

It is logical to argue that growth led by low-carbon goods and services (LCGS) is an imperative for the countries of Asia and the Pacific, and particularly for emerging Asian economies, which are heavily dependent on imported energy and resources. Acknowledging this fact, individual governments...

It is logical to argue that growth led by low-carbon goods and services (LCGS) is an imperative for the countries of Asia and the Pacific, and particularly for emerging Asian economies, which are heavily dependent on imported energy and resources. Acknowledging this fact, individual governments...

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government...

This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an...

Several countries have employed countercyclical fiscal policy to ameliorate the impact of the global financial crisis. This study identifies some of the issues and policy implications associated with this policy response in developing countries. Included are case studies of four developing...

Several countries have employed countercyclical fiscal policy to ameliorate the impact of the global financial crisis. This study identifies some of the issues and policy implications associated with this policy response in developing countries. Included are case studies of four developing...

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical...

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to...