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The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions

Canova, Fabio; Marcet, Albert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

We study the issue of income convergence across countries and regions with a Bayesian model which allows us to use … information in an efficient and flexible way. We argue that the very slow convergence rates to a common level of per-capita income … introduces in the results. Our approach permits the estimation of different convergence rates to different steady states for each …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067447

Knowledge Spillovers and the Growth of Local Industries

Forni, Mario; Paba, Sergio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

The literature on localised knowledge spillovers and growth focuses on the relative importance of intra vs. inter-industry externalities, but the nature and the characteristics of the dynamic linkages across manufacturing sectors are not investigated. In this Paper we perform a very...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661632

Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets

Marcet, Albert; Scott, Andrew - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

The aim of this Paper is to test for the extent of incompleteness in the market for US Government debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal tax policy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067553

Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management in OECD Economies

Faraglia, Elisa; Marcet, Albert; Scott, Andrew - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136566

In Search of a Theory of Debt Management

Faraglia, Elisa; Marcet, Albert; Scott, Andrew - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136601

Testing for Sufficient Information in Structural VARs

Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which a set of variables is informationally sufficient, i.e. it contains enough information to estimate the structural shocks with a VAR model. Based on such conditions, we suggest a procedure to test for informational sufficiency. Moreover, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854473

No News in Business Cycles

Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Sala, Luca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854525

The Impact of Debt Levels and Debt Maturity on Inflation

Faraglia, Elisa; Marcet, Albert; Oikonomou, Rigas; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

In the context of a sticky price DSGE model subject to government expenditure and preference shocks where governments issue only nominal non-contingent bonds we examine the implications for optimal inflation of changes in the level and average maturity of government debt. We analyse these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083281

Modelling Long Bonds - The Case of Optimal Fiscal Policy

Faraglia, Elisa; Marcet, Albert; Scott, Andrew - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

We show how to model portfolio models in the presence of long bonds. Specifically we study optimal fiscal policy under incomplete markets where the government issues bonds of maturity N 1. Assuming the existence of long bonds introduces an additional intertemporal mechanism that makes taxes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083295

Noise Bubbles

Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Lippi, Marco; Sala, Luca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

We introduce noisy information into a standard present value stock price model. Agents receive a noisy signal about the structural shock driving future dividend variations. The resulting equilibrium stock price includes a transitory component — the "noise bubble" — which can be responsible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083736