The literature on localised knowledge spillovers and growth focuses on the relative importance of intra vs. inter-industry externalities, but the nature and the characteristics of the dynamic linkages across manufacturing sectors are not investigated. In this Paper we perform a very...

We use a 12-dimensional VAR to examine the dynamic effects on the labour market of four structural technology and policy shocks. For each shock, we examine the dynamic effects on the labour market, the importance of the shock for labour market volatility, and the comovement between labour market...

We provide empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...

We provide empirical evidence on the effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We make a distinction between "surprise" and "anticipated" tax shocks. Surprise tax cuts give rise to a large boom in the economy. Anticipated tax liability tax cuts are instead associated with a...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an inflow of low-skilled workers into an economy where there is capital accumulation, endogenous labour supply and heterogeneous workers. We find substantial dynamic effects, with adjustments that resemble those triggered by a sudden disruption of...

We evaluate the extent to which a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model can account for the impact of "surprise" and "anticipated" tax shocks estimated from U.S. time-series data. In U.S. data, surprise tax cuts have expansionary and persistent effects on output, consumption, investment...

We examine the impact of fiscal policy interventions in an environment where the short term nominal interest rate is at the zero bound. In the basic New Keynesian model in which the monetary authority operates a Taylor rule, globally multiple equilibria arise, some of which display all the...

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which a set of variables is informationally sufficient, i.e. it contains enough information to estimate the structural shocks with a VAR model. Based on such conditions, we suggest a procedure to test for informational sufficiency. Moreover, we...

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to...

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States. We distinguish between the effects of changes in personal and corporate income taxes using a new narrative account of federal tax liability changes in these two tax components. We develop an estimator in which...