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A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses : applying a trend-cycle decomposition to unemployment
Fuchs, Johann; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2013
"Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a … trend component of unemployment, which triggers permanent reactions of the workers, is likely connected to a structural … effect. By splitting up the participation effect of changes in the unemployment rate our analysis differs profoundly from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010691302
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Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function
Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2014
"This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011207081
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Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies
Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) - 2013
forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their … expectations of future labor market developments. We generate an aggregate unemployment leading indicator that exploits serial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010720410