"Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a … trend component of unemployment, which triggers permanent reactions of the workers, is likely connected to a structural … effect. By splitting up the participation effect of changes in the unemployment rate our analysis differs profoundly from …

"This paper studies the patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany. To provide a deeper insight into the margins of … unemployment adjustment, we employ a structural VAR model and identify the effects of a technology shock as well as two policy …

components of matching efficiency and separation rate (shifting parameters) as well as unemployment and vacancies. Cointegration …

forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their … expectations of future labor market developments. We generate an aggregate unemployment leading indicator that exploits serial …