We propose a new business cycle theory. Firms need to randomize over firing or keeping workers who have performed …

Using responses obtained through the Nielsen Homescan panel survey, we explore the differences between managers' and … non-managers' expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and non-managers exhibit … information provided in a randomized control trial. Finally, the inflation expectations of managers deviate systematically from …

We propose a model where investors hire fund managers to invest either in risky bonds or in riskless assets. Some … managers have superior information on the default probability. Looking at the past performance, investors update beliefs on … their managers and make firing decisions. This leads to career concerns which affect investment decisions, generating a …