This paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of OECD countries. In particular, we investigate how different types of fiscal policy affect profits and , as a result, investment. We find a sizable negative effect of public spending -- and in particular of its...

This paper studies both theoretically and empirically the determinants of group formation and of the degree of participation when the population is heterogeneous, both in terms of income and race or ethnicity. We are especially interested in whether and how much the degree of heterogeneity in...

This paper explores a series of general-equilibrium models in which people can choose to be either producers or predators, and in which producers can allocate their resources either to production or to guarding their production against predators. The analysis shows how the ratio of predators to...

This paper reports empirical tests for the existence of rational bubbles in stock prices. The analysis focuses on a familiar model that defines market fundamentals to be the expected present value of dividends, discounted at a constantrate, and defines a rational bubble to be a self-confirming...

A rational bubble would involve a self-confirming belief that an asset price depends on information that includes variables or parameters that are not part of market fundamentals. The existing literature shows that, if market fundamentals are economically interesting, i.e., forward looking, any...

This paper derives a reputational equilibrum for inflation in a model in which the government obtains valuable seigniorage by issuing fiat money in echange for real resources. One insightful result is that , with contemporaneous perceptionof actual government behavior and immediate adjustment of...

This paper focuses on the problem of formulating an analysis of economic policy that is consistent with rational expectations. Cooley, LeRoy,and Raymon show that the Lucas and Sargent strategy for econometric policy evaluation is itself vulnerable to the logic of the Lucas critique. The present...

The solution to a linear model in which supply and/or demand depends on rational expectations of future prices can involve three parts, which we denote as the fundamental component, the deterministic bubble component, and the stochastic bubble component. This paper explores the properties of...

Non-market-clearing models continue to dominate analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations and discussions of macroeconomic policy. This situation is remarkable because non-market-clearing assumptions seem to be inconsistent with the essential presumption of neoclassical economic analysis that...