For a long time, China’s impressive growth performance has been driven by investment and high productivity gains. Based … on the recent discussion on possible overcapacities and overinvestment in China, the paper investigates the … sustainability of China’s investment- and export-driven growth model. It is shown that since the turn of the millennium buoyant …

constitute long-term appreciation expectations on yuan and yen, which have made China and Japan vulnerable to U.S. interest rate … cuts and appreciation expectation shocks. For both China and Japan - at different points of time - self-fulfilling runs …, speculative bubbles and post-bubble secular stagnation. To prevent a similar scenario for China capital controls, a tighter …