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This paper analyzes the contributions of monetary and fiscal policy to postwar economic recoveries. We find that the Federal Reserve typically responds to downturns with prompt and large reductions in interest rates. Discretionary fiscal policy, in contrast, rarely reacts before the trough in...
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Countries with high debt loads are vulnerable to an adverse feedback loop in which doubts by lenders lead to higher sovereign interest rates which in turn make the debt problems more severe. We analyze the recent experience of advanced economies using both econometric methods and case studies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077956
functioning of the economy and the effects of policy. We document the changes in beliefs using contemporaneous discussions of the … economy and policy by monetary and fiscal policymakers and, for the period since the late 1960s, using the Federal Reserve …'s internal forecasts. We find that policymakers' understanding of the economy has not exhibited steady improvement. Instead, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322316
We identify the international credit channel of monetary policy by analyzing the universe of corporate loans in Mexico, matched with firm and bank balance-sheet data, and by exploiting foreign monetary policy shocks, given the large presence of European and U.S. banks in Mexico. We find that a...
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The paper argues that many of the exaggerated claims that globalization has been an important factor in lowering inflation in recent years just do not hold up. Globalization does, however, have the potential to be stabilizing for individual economies and has been a key factor in promoting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759372
This paper develops the quantitative implications of optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model. In a stationary equilibrium the ex ante tax rate on capital income is approximately zero. There is an equivalence class of ex post capital income tax rates and bond policies that support a given...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114944