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This paper argues that the key deep underlying fundamental for the growing international imbalances leading to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system between 1971 and 1973 was rising U.S. inflation since 1965. It was driven in turn by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies—the elephant in...
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This ppaer studies how the composition of fiscal adjustments influences their likelihood of success, defined as a long lasting deficit reduction, and their macroeconomic consequences. We find that fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on spending cuts on transfers and the government wage bill...
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Interconnections between banking crises and fiscal crises have a long history. We document the long-run evolution from classic banking panics towards modern banking crises where financial guarantees are associated with crisis resolution. Recent crises feature a feedback loop between bank...
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which could intervene in the gold market to shield the domestic economy from external conditions. We proceed by identifying … separate supply' shocks, money supply shocks and demand shocks using a Blanchard-Quah methodology. We model the economy as a … small open economy on the gold standard and identify the shocks by imposing long run restrictions on the impact of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220513
The relatively infrequent nature of major credit distress events makes an historical approach particularly useful. Using a combination of historical narrative and econometric techniques, we identify major periods of credit distress from 1875 to 2007, examine the extent to which credit distress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150829
What does the historical record tell us about how to conduct monetary policy in a deflationary environment? We present a broad cross-country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current policy challenges. We first review the theoretical literature...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248272