We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises...

We estimate agents' expectations about future fundamentals using a dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model augmented with anticipated shocks. Accounting for agents' expectations atthe business cycle horizon results in aggregate risk factor innovations that have significant explanatory power...

Illiquidity measures appear to be related to monthly realized returns but do they impact long-run costs of capital (CoC) for firms? Using U.S. data, we find cross-sectional evidence that, controlling for market capitalization, the Amihud (2002) measure of illiquidity is negatively related to CoC...