The question of whether empirical models are able to forecast the equity premium more accurately than the simple historical mean is intensively debated in the financial literature. The low prediction power is disappointing, even when using nonparametric models that make use of typical predictor...

Recent studies have used the value spread to predict aggregate stock returns to construct cash-flow betas that appear to explain the size and value anomalies. We show that two related variables, the book-to-market spread (the book-to-market of value stocks minus that of growth stocks) and the...