In this paper we analyze the distribution of fertility rates across theworld using parametric mixture models. We demonstrate the existence of twinpeaks and the division of the world's countries in two distinct components: ahigh-fertility regime and a low fertility regime. Whereas the signicance...

Evidence from credit files is provided to examine bank lending determinants of Thaicommercial banks. Their lending practice follows reasonable patterns as a standardset of variables, including indirect risk variables, explains much of the variance in interestrate spread. Reflecting institutional...

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchangerates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despitethis limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecastingpower and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions.As the pricing of derivatives as well as the computation of the marketor credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application of awrong model can lead to a serious over- or...