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The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflictedsubstantial financial, economic, and social damage on thecountries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiencyof early warning indicators for these disastrous economic eventsis evaluated. An analysis of the traditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009471830
We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296810
economies (EMEs) on configurations between the US dollar, the euro and the yen. Given the difficulty that fixed or managed US … have a statistically but also an economically significant impact on the euro, and to a lesser extent the yen against the US … the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar in recent years. Interestingly, EME policy-makers appear to have become …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605019
traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease. We empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 24 … reserve ratios, introducing transactions demand has a relatively modest effect. We also find that euro and dollar bonds act as … in Asia and Latin America, while the euro is a better hedge for sudden stops in Emerging Europe. We reproduce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604962
A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharp appreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper finds that negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered a significant strengthening of the US dollar,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605106
Ist Südostasien anders? Dieser Frage geht Rainer Schweickert in der Kieler Studie 306 nach. Seine Analyse der Leistungsbilanzen, ihrer Teilkomponenten und ihrer Determinanten seit Anfang der 70er Jahre sowie der krisenhaften Entwicklungen in den 90er Jahren weist nach, dass diese Vermutung in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332925
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807332
verbessern.Kapitel 5 beschäftigt sich schließlich mit dem Einfluss der jüngsten Finanzkrise auf die Kreditverfügbarkeit für KKMU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009476202
In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807312
The impact of currency collapses (i.e. large nominal depreciations or devaluations) on real output remains unsettled in the empirical macroeconomic literature. This paper provides new empirical evidence on this relationship using a dataset for 108 emerging and developing economies for the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605272