We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies--event studies, vector autoregressions, and regional panel regressions using...

This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyze the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than...

We explore the role of government in the nexus of finance and trade starting from the earliest days of organised finance in England and then broadening the analysis to 84 countries from 1960 to 2004. For 18th century England, we find that the government expenditures and international trade did...

Disappointing recent growth rates, the emergence of structurally unfavorable income and employment conditions, and important institutional changes in the international trading environment have caused policy officials in the advanced industrial nations to reconsider the proper mix of reactive...

Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) - a general purpose technology affecting many industries - has been focused on advances in machine learning, which we recast as a quality-adjusted drop in the price of prediction. How will this sharp drop in price impact society? Policy will...

We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016Q1 to 2018Q4. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from...