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A monetary union among autonomous countries cannot simultaneously maintain an independent monetary policy, national fiscal sovereignty and a no-bailout clause. These three features make up an impossible trinity, and attempts to preserve all three concurrently will ultimately end in failure. In...
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control inflation and influence the economy in the usual ways. The paper discusses models of fiscal limits and their … implications and lays out a research agenda to integrate political economy and empirical considerations with general equilibrium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129132
Monetary policy decisions tend to be based on systematic analysis of alternative policy choices and their associated macroeconomic impacts: this is science. Fiscal policy choices, in contrast, spring from unsystematic speculation, grounded more in politics than economics: this is alchemy. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136545
Bayesian prior predictive analysis of five nested DSGE models suggests that model specifications and prior distributions tightly circumscribe the range of possible government spending multipliers. Multipliers are decomposed into wealth and substitution effects, yielding uniform comparisons...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120209
The Chinese economy has undergone three major phases: the 1978-1997 period marked as the SOE-led economy, the 1998 …-2015 phase as the investment-driven economy, and the new normal economy since 2016. All three economies have been shaped by the … one economy to another was driven mainly by regime changes in financial policies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908470
We use Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary DSGE model, extended to include fiscal details and two distinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes, to quantify government spending multipliers in U.S. data. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relatively diffuse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017938
We provide a comprehensive account of the dynamics of eurozone countries from 2000 to 2012. We analyze private leverage, fiscal policy, labor costs and interest rates and we propose a strategy to separate the impact of credit cycles, excessive government spending, and sudden stops. We then ask...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045645