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Managing households' expectations with salient economic policies
D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Weber, Michael - 2019 - This version: August 2019
The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
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The empire project : trade policy in interwar Canada
Lampe, Markus; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj; Reiter, Lorenz; … - 2023
This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014275962
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Consumer sentiment during the Covid-19 pandemic : the role of others' beliefs
Bui, Dzung; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Giang Hong Nghiem - 2021
sentiment. Conducting consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in Thailand and Vietnam during the COVID-19 … asymmetric across our sample countries, as it shows opposite appropriateness ratings of the governments’ reaction in Vietnam and … only in Vietnam, where the sign of the effect suggests that the treatments are viewed as positive news. Moreover, consumer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012500548
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Subjective models of the macroeconomy : evidence from experts and a representative sample
Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; … - 2019
We propose a method to measure people's subjective models of the macroeconomy. Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and the inflation rate respond to four different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048
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Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity
Piermartini, Roberta; Yotov, Yoto V. - 2016
The objective of this manuscript is to serve as a practical guide for estimations with the structural gravity model. After a brief review of the theoretical foundations, we summarize the main challenges with gravity estimations and we review the solutions to address those challenges. Then, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509468
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The 2020 US presidential election and Trump's trade war
Lake, James; Nie, Jun - 2022
The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s and was still raging when he left office. We analyze how the trade war impacted the 2020 US Presidential election. Our results highlight the political salience of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013171058
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Expecting Brexit
Dhingra, Swati; Sampson, Thomas - 2022
and uncertainty shocks. Voting for Brexit had large negative effects on the UK economy between 2016 and 2019, leading to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012806478
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Did COVID-19 cost Trump the election?
Lake, James; Nie, Jun - 2021
A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not find supporting evidence; if anything, the pandemic helped Trump. However, we find substantial evidence that voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421123
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When elephants make peace : the impact of the China-U.S. trade agreement on developing countries
Freund, Caroline L.; Maliszewska, Maryla; Mattoo, Aaditya; … - 2020
Should the China-U.S. trade agreement prompt relief because it averts a damaging trade war or concern because selective preferential access for the United States to China's markets breaks multilateral rules against discrimination? The answer depends on how China implements the agreement....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230758
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Did Trump's trade war impact the 2018 election?
Blanchard, Emily J.; Bown, Chad P.; Chor, Davin - 2020
We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293757