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Keuschnigg, Christian; Johs, Julian; Stevens, Jacob - 2021

One of the main functions of public debt is to smooth taxes and spending over time. In the Covid crisis, the Maastricht deficit restrictions were temporarily suspended to allow for large temporary deficits. As recovery sets in, countries are confronted with the task of consolidating the Covid...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796971

Flexicurity, taxes and job reallocation

Davoine, Thomas; Keuschnigg, Christian - 2015

This paper considers the role of flexicurity when jobs must be reallocated from a declining, traditional sector to a skill intensive expanding sector. Workers initially decide whether to acquire qualifications for skill-intensive tasks or to accept a less demanding traditional job. Unemployment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509657

Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR

Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2019

The paper contributes to the growing global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national shocks can be identified within a GVAR framework. The usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of the interactions between public debt and real output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956353

Climate change and economic activity : evidence from U.S. states

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Ng, Ryan N. C.; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2022

We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across 48 U.S. states over the period 1963.2016 using a novel econometric strategy which links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their long-term moving-average historical norms (climate) to various...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012806494

Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change : a cross-country analysis

Kahn, Matthew E.; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Ng, Ryan N. C.; … - 2019

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labour productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables. defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012031151

Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics : an empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2012

This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model's parameters and where it...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009571104

Tests of policy ineffectiveness in macroeconometrics

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2014

This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010375404

Causal effects of the Fed's large-scale asset purchases on firms' capital structure

Nocera, Andrea; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2022

This paper investigates the short- and long-term impacts of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) on the capital structure of U.S. non-financial firms. To isolate the effects of LSAPs from the impact of concurrent macroeconomic conditions, we exploit cross-industry variations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013176956

Oil exports and the Iranian economy

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2009

This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil … set on the Iranian economy over the period 1979Q1-2006Q4. Building an error correction specification in real output, real … the world. We also find that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897747

Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016

for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a … after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the US economy over different sub-periods using …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542