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Fiscal convergence before entering the EMU

Onorante, Luca - European Central Bank - 2006

The monetary integration of the acceding countries will proceed in several distinct steps, starting with membership in the European Union (EU), followed by participation in the so-called Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) II and ultimately entry into the euro area. This paper addresses the question...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344947

Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States

Arratibel, Olga; Kamps, Christophe; Leiner-Killinger, Nadine - European Central Bank - 2009

To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002771

The political economy under monetary union: has the euro made a difference?

Fratzscher, Marcel; Stracca, Livio - European Central Bank - 2008

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much … political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union implies that member states had to transfer or at least curtail their … impact of political shocks on the domestic economy of member states but magnified the transmission of political shocks within …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530784

What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis

Giuliodori, Massimo; Beetsma, Roel - European Central Bank - 2004

We use a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis to explore the (spill-over) effects of fiscal policy shocks in Europe. To enhance comparability with the existing literature, we first analyse the effects of these shocks at the national level. Here, we employ identification based on Choleski...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530834

What determines fiscal balances? An empirical investigation in determinants of changes in OECD budget balances

Tujula, Mika; Wolswijk, Guido - European Central Bank - 2004

Fiscal balances have deteriorated quickly in recent years, bringing back to the foreground the question what factors help explain such sharp changes. This paper takes a broad perspective at the issue regarding countries included, the range of explanatory variables tried, and the time-span. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162932

Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth

Afonso, António; Furceri, Davide - European Central Bank - 2008

This paper analyses the effects in terms of size and volatility of government revenue and spending on growth in OECD and EU countries. The results of the paper suggest that both variables are detrimental to growth. In particular, looking more closely at the effect of each component of government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530997

The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area

Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Rother, Philipp - European Central Bank - 2010

This paper investigates the average impact of government debt on per-capita GDP growth in twelve euro area countries over a period of about 40 years starting in 1970. It finds a non-linear impact of debt on growth with a turning point—beyond which the government debt-to-GDP ratio has a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008484246

What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis

Caldara, Dario; Kamps, Christophe - European Central Bank - 2008

The empirical literature using vector autoregressive models to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on even the qualitative response of key macroeconomic variables to government spending and tax shocks. We provide new evidence for the U.S. over the period 1955-2006. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344811

Fiscal policy in real time

Cimadomo, Jacopo - European Central Bank - 2008

This paper argues that any assessment on the intentional stance of fiscal policy should be based upon all the information available to policymakers at the time of fiscal planning. In particular, real-time data on the discretionary fiscal policy "instrument", the structural primary balance,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344836

Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model

Coenen, Günter; McAdam, Peter; Straub, Roland - European Central Bank - 2007

In this paper, we employ a calibrated two-country version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) currently under development at the European Central Bank to examine the potential benefits and spillovers of reducing labour-market distortions caused by euro area tax structures. Our analysis shows that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344892