Our study investigates the role of the exchange rate regime to explain the empirical link between financial crises and economic activity. We examine the relationship between real per capita GDP growth, exchange rate regimes and the incidence of crises. Asymmetries are also explored. While...

We propose a dynamic Rational Expectations (RE) bubble model of prices with the intention to exploit it for and evaluate it on optimal investment strategies. Our bubble model is defined as a geometric Brownian motion combined with separate crash (and rally) discrete jump distributions associated...

At odds with the common “rational expectations” framework for bubbles, economists like Hyman Minsky, Charles Kindleberger and Robert Shiller have documented that irrational behavior, ambiguous information or certain limits to arbitrage are essential drivers for bubble phenomena and financial...