Wir untersuchen die Auswirkungen des beispiellosen Anstiegs des internationalen Handels zwischen Deutschland und dem Osten - China und Osteuropa - im Zeitraum 1988-2008 auf lokale Arbeitsmärkte in Deutschland. Anhand von administrativen Daten nutzen wir die regionale Variation der...

In Folge des Brexit dürfte die reale Wirtschaftsleistung pro Kopf in Deutschland, je nach unterstelltem Szenario, niedriger ausfallen als im Status quo. Hinter diesem gesamtdeutschen Durchschnittseffekt verbergen sich jedoch höchst heterogene Auswirkungen des Austritts auf die deutschen...

A key goal of politicians is to ensure a sustainable and stable economic growth path for their domestic economy. Economic forecasts are powerful tools for reducing uncertainty about future economic growth. While most of the research conducted to date has focused on nation states, this thesis by...

We analyze the effects of the unprecedented rise in trade between Germany and the East - China and Eastern Europe - in the period 1988-2008 on German local labor markets. Using detailed administrative data, we exploit the cross-regional variation in initial industry structures and use trade...

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...

We analyze the effects of the unprecedented rise in trade between Germany and "the East" - China and Eastern Europe - in the period 1988-2008 on German local labor markets. Using detailed administrative data, we exploit the cross-regional variation in initial industry structures and use trade...

We analyze the effects of the unprecedented rise in trade between Germany and "the East" - China and Eastern Europe - in the period 1988 - 2008 on German local labor markets. Using detailed administrative data, we exploit the cross-regional variation in initial industry structures and use trade...

This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two German states (the Free State of Saxony and...