A two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA is presented and tested. The first component of the GDP growth rate represents an economic trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per capita itself, with the nominator being constant through...

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, π(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by...

Previously, a linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, π(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A1 and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for the USA is characterized by A1=4.0,...

This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple...

The current financial crisis followed the “great moderation,” according to which the world’s central banks had gotten so good at countercyclical policy that the business cycle no longer existed. As more and more economists and media people became convinced that the risk of recessions had...

This paper comprises a survey of a half century of research on international monetary aggregate data. We argue that since monetary assets began yielding interest, the simple sum monetary aggregates have had no foundations in economic theory and have sequentially produced one source of...

The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM...

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more...