This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses these rates to estimate the … unemployment rate trend, that is the level of the unemployment rate the economy converges to in the long-run. In doing so, the … paper explores the role of the labor force participation in determining the trend unemployment. We find an inverse V …