This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

uncover the trend changes in these flows, which determine the trend in the unemployment rate. We argue that this trend rate … margin after 2000, pushing trend unemployment up. But the trend in the separation rate has somewhat offset that effect, with … unemployment rate, most of the low-frequency variation in the rate can be accounted for by changes in the trend of the separation …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved-components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time-varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

We estimate trends in the labor force participation (LFP) and unemployment rates for demographic groups differentiated … group trends, we construct trends for the aggregate LFP and unemployment rate. Important drivers of the aggregate LFP rate …. The aggregate unemployment rate trend on the other hand is almost exclusively driven by demographic factors, with about …

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate … trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run. In doing so, the paper explores the … role of labor force participation in determining the unemployment rate trend. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for …

We construct a simple general equilibrium model of unemployment and calibrate it to the Canadian economy. Job creation …-run increase in the Canadian unemployment rate: a more generous unemployment insurance system, higher layoff costs, higher … on the unemployment rate is small …

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses these rates to estimate the … unemployment rate trend, that is the level of the unemployment rate the economy converges to in the long-run. In doing so, the … paper explores the role of the labor force participation in determining the trend unemployment. We find an inverse V …