interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market … performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states - employment and unemployment … that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drive the unemployment rate and the participation rate in …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

uncover the trend changes in these flows, which determine the trend in the unemployment rate. We argue that this trend rate … margin after 2000, pushing trend unemployment up. But the trend in the separation rate has somewhat offset that effect, with … unemployment rate, most of the low-frequency variation in the rate can be accounted for by changes in the trend of the separation …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved-components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time-varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate … trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run. In doing so, the paper explores the … role of labor force participation in determining the unemployment rate trend. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for …

In the past decades unemployment in the Netherlands has gone down substantially. The main suspects responsible for this … unemployment rate in the Netherlands has increased somewhat. However, since the huge decline in unemployment was due to structural … improvements in the functioning of the labor market there is not a lot of reason to worry about the recent rise in unemployment …