This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

uncover the trend changes in these flows, which determine the trend in the unemployment rate. We argue that this trend rate … margin after 2000, pushing trend unemployment up. But the trend in the separation rate has somewhat offset that effect, with … unemployment rate, most of the low-frequency variation in the rate can be accounted for by changes in the trend of the separation …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved-components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time-varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate … trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run. In doing so, the paper explores the … role of labor force participation in determining the unemployment rate trend. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for …